Total Fertility Rate
Average number of children per woman
“Birth rates collapsed after 1971 as economic conditions made raising children unaffordable.”
The fertility rate dropped from 3.6 to 1.8 between 1960 and 1976 — the decline began a full decade before 1971. The primary drivers were the birth control pill (1960), women's education and career access, and changing social norms.
Perspectives
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Reproductive technology and social change, not monetary policy
The fertility decline is a global phenomenon occurring across all monetary systems, driven by contraception, education, and urbanization.
Every developed country has experienced this transition — the 'demographic transition' is one of the most studied phenomena in social science. Countries with gold-backed currencies, fiat currencies, and everything in between all show declining fertility as women gain education and reproductive autonomy.
Causal Factors
Birth control pill (1960)
35%The Pill gave women reliable control over reproduction for the first time. Fertility dropped 38% within 5 years of the Pill's approval.
Women's education & career access
25%Women's college enrollment surged after Title IX (1972). Higher education delays childbearing and reduces completed family size.
Changing social norms
15%Cultural expectations shifted from early marriage and large families to individual fulfillment, career achievement, and smaller families.
Rising child-rearing costs
15%The cost of raising a child rose to ~$310,000 (2023 dollars). Housing, childcare, education, and healthcare costs made large families expensive.
Legal access to abortion
10%Roe v. Wade (1973) provided a legal option for unplanned pregnancies, contributing to lower birth rates.
Data Source
Key Events
Baby boom peak
Fertility peaks at 3.67 children per woman
The Pill approved
FDA approves oral contraceptives — fertility immediately drops
Griswold v. Connecticut
Supreme Court legalizes contraception for married couples
Nixon Shock
Gold standard ends — but fertility had already plunged from 3.65 to 2.27
Roe v. Wade
Supreme Court legalizes abortion nationwide
Pre-recession peak
Fertility briefly rises to 2.12 before declining again