US Incarceration Rate
State and federal prisoners per 100,000 population
“Incarceration exploded after 1971 as economic conditions deteriorated.”
The incarceration rate was stable from the 1920s to early 1970s, then quadrupled from 1973 to 2009. The cause was not economic distress but the War on Drugs (declared by Nixon in 1971), mandatory minimum sentencing, and the 1994 crime bill.
Perspectives
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Criminal justice policy, not economics, drove mass incarceration
The quadrupling of incarceration was caused by the War on Drugs, mandatory minimums, and tough-on-crime legislation — policies with clear legislative histories.
The 1971 timing is coincidental — Nixon happened to declare the War on Drugs the same year he ended gold convertibility. The incarceration surge came from specific legislation: Rockefeller laws (1973), Anti-Drug Abuse Act (1986), Crime Bill (1994). Economic stress may have contributed to support for tough-on-crime politics, but the direct cause is policy.
Causal Factors
War on Drugs policies
35%Drug offenses account for nearly half of federal prisoners. Harsh penalties for possession (not just trafficking) filled prisons with nonviolent offenders.
Mandatory minimum sentencing
25%Mandatory minimums removed judicial discretion, resulting in disproportionately long sentences. The crack-cocaine disparity (100:1 until 2010) was especially devastating.
Three-strikes laws
15%28 states adopted three-strikes laws mandating life sentences for third felonies, regardless of severity.
Racial disparities in enforcement
15%Black Americans are incarcerated at 5x the rate of whites. Drug use rates are similar across races, but arrest and sentencing rates are not.
Prison-industrial complex
10%Private prisons, prison labor, and lobbying by corrections unions created financial incentives for incarceration.
Data Source
Key Events
War on Drugs declared
Nixon declares drug abuse 'public enemy number one'
Rockefeller Drug Laws
New York passes extreme mandatory minimums for drug offenses
Anti-Drug Abuse Act
Creates crack/cocaine sentencing disparity (100:1 ratio)
Crime Bill
Violent Crime Control Act funds prison construction, three-strikes laws
Peak and decline
Incarceration rate begins declining as reform movements gain traction