Labor Market

Manufacturing Employment Share

Manufacturing workers as percentage of total nonfarm employment

Manufacturing Share
Key events
Common Claim

America lost its manufacturing base after 1971 when the dollar's devaluation made imports cheaper.

What the Data Shows

Manufacturing employment as a share of total jobs fell from ~30% in 1953 to ~8% in 2023. The decline was steady from the 1950s onward, well before 1971. It accelerated after 2001 (China's WTO entry), losing 5 million jobs in a decade. Automation eliminated more manufacturing jobs than trade did.

Perspectives

skeptic

Manufacturing was declining before 1971 — the trend started in the 1950s

Every developed nation has experienced this transition — Germany, Japan, the UK all saw manufacturing decline as a share of employment, regardless of monetary system. The US actually still has the second-largest manufacturing output in the world. The issue is automation, not monetary policy.

neutral

Automation, trade, and economic evolution drove manufacturing decline

The decline was gradual from 1953-2000, then accelerated sharply with China's WTO entry. Monetary policy played a role through exchange rates, but the fundamental forces were technological change and comparative advantage. Notably, US manufacturing output has increased even as employment fell.

believer

The devalued dollar made offshoring inevitable

Under the gold standard, trade was balanced and manufacturing was the backbone of the economy. The floating exchange rate and trade deficits that followed 1971 enabled the hollowing out of American industry. The human cost — devastated factory towns, opioid epidemics, 'deaths of despair' — flows directly from this decision.

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Causal Factors

Automation & productivity gains

30%

US manufacturing output reached record highs even as employment fell. Robots and automation replaced workers: each industrial robot displaces ~3.3 workers.

Acemoglu & Restrepo (2019)

Globalization & trade competition

25%

China's WTO accession alone cost 2-2.4 million US jobs from 2000-2015. NAFTA shifted ~800,000 jobs to Mexico. Lower-wage countries had an inherent cost advantage.

Autor, Dorn & Hanson (2013)

Service economy transition

20%

The US economy naturally transitioned from manufacturing to services as incomes rose — a pattern seen in every developed nation regardless of monetary system.

Bureau of Economic Analysis

Currency & trade policy

15%

A strong dollar made imports cheap and exports expensive. China's currency manipulation kept the yuan undervalued by an estimated 25-40% for two decades.

Peterson Institute for International Economics

Corporate tax & regulatory burden

10%

High corporate tax rates (before 2017 TCJA), environmental regulations, and compliance costs incentivized offshoring production.

Tax Foundation

Data Source

Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRED (MANEMP)

View original data

Last updated: 2024-12

Key Events

1953

Post-war peak

Manufacturing employment peaks at 31.8% of nonfarm jobs

1971

Nixon Shock

Gold standard ends, but manufacturing decline was already well underway

1994

NAFTA

North American Free Trade Agreement shifts some production to Mexico

2001

China joins WTO

The 'China Shock' accelerates manufacturing job losses dramatically

2010

Bottom & stabilization

Manufacturing share stabilizes around 8-9% after the Great Recession